Posted: March 2nd, 2022

Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 39 (2020) 6231–6243

Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 39 (2020) 6231–6243
DOI:10.3233/JIFS-189092
IOS Press
6231
Analysis of a new business model
to fundraise non-governmental
organizations using fuzzy cognitive maps
Irem Ucal Saria,∗, Duygu Sergib and Can Aytorec
aDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Macka, Istanbul, Turkey
bDepartment of Industrial Engineering, MEF University, Ayazaga, Istanbul, Turkey
cDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Bogazici University, Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey
Abstract. Fundraising is one of the most critical issues for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to carry out their projects.
In this paper, a search engine project which aims to find additional financial sources and increase donations for NGOs is
proposed. The proposed search engine project is analyzed using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to define and manage factor
influences on the success of the project. FCMs are useful tools to define long term effects of important factors for a system.
First casual relations of the factors are determined and then using sigmoid function for learning algorithm, the equilibrium
state for the system is obtained. It is found that the factors generating monetary values are the most important ones for the
project to be successful in long term.
Keywords: Fuzzy cognitive maps, fundraising, non-governmental organizations
1. Introduction
Non-governmental organizations are independent
organizations from private sectors and the government, which are operating in the fields of education,
health, political, social, cultural, legal and environmental and helping to meet the needs. These
organizations continue to work to find solutions to
various problems and achieve a common objective
with the contributions of volunteers. As stated by
Nadira et al. [1], NGOs that respond to local needs are
flexible organizations; that’s why, they can develop
complex projects. These institutions, which voluntarily take their members and employees, generate
income through donations and members. Having a
∗Corresponding author. Irem Ucal Sari, Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Macka, Istanbul,
Turkey. E-mail: [email protected].
completely voluntary system is the most specific
feature that distinguishes NGOs from other organizations. Without any pressure, all individuals can
come together with their own desires at any time
and leave any time. In this respect, every resource
and beneficiary that can be used in NGOs by implementing a participatory approach is included in the
development process [2]. Unlike other institutions,
individuals working in NGOs are highly motivated
due to fewer restrictions [1]. Further, membership
is not necessary to support NGOs, and assistance
also can be provided without membership. The main
goal of NGOs is to contribute to society by providing things. Activities in the service delivery of NGOs
include promoting volunteering, evaluating people’s
needs, providing new services, evaluating results.
Nowadays, the voluntary sector has a significant
place in terms of size and importance [3]. With the
increase in the number of charitable organizations
ISSN 1064-1246/20/$35.00 © 2020 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved
6232 I. Ucal Sari et al. / Analysis of a new business model to fundraise non-governmental organizations
seeking donors’ support, the existing competition
has increased more [4]. In this context, the issue of
fundraising has become dominant issue and NGOs
are undergoing more challenging processes than ever
before to become a charity in order to ensure the
welfare of society [5]. While most charitable organizations rely on additional external funding, many
of them cover at least portion of their costs through
revenue. In many countries, until recently, a significant proportion of these external funds was obtained
from public funds [6]. NGOs play a role in facilitating organizations’ transformation of financial and
ideopolitical resources into organizational goals. In
the case of fund donors, NGOs close the gap between
expectations and monetary insufficiencies [7]. Foundations and independent organizations support NGOs
in many other ways. Sometimes this support can
be a project-based grant to be a partner or collaborate on the organization’s projects, does not have
to be directly. In addition, embassies and consulates
support NGOs in line with their foreign policy objectives in their countries. Within the scope of corporate
social responsibility, there are companies that run
their own projects and raise funds, and private companies that carry out social responsibility projects
and provide resources. As a result, NGOs detect
opportunities for project financing and find innovative ways to achieve this funding [7]. It is also possible
to use alternative methods to search for resources.
For instance, donations can be made over the
Internet.
Viewed from a different point, the interest in NGOs
has gradually decreased in recent years, and considering this situation, the study aims to fulfill the gap
experienced by NGOs and turn these into new opportunities. This paper aims to evaluate a new business
model that supports fundraising of NGOs. In addition
to providing financial support to NGOs with this business model, it is aimed to raise social awareness and
satisfy people by bringing with it the moral benefits
of social assistance. This model, which has emerged
to help people in need, includes many NGOs working in different fields. The ability to make donations
without taking any money out of the donor’s pocket
makes the importance and ease of use of this project
even more obvious.
In this paper, proposed search engine project is
analyzed using fuzzy cognitive maps to understand
the dynamics of the factors which are the main concepts that the system has. Long term success of
the proposed project is investigated using the factor
influences.
The rest of the paper is constructed as follows: In
Sec. 2, dynamics of NGOs is given with a detailed
literature review. The basic information on search
engine working principles are given in Sec. 3. In Sec.
4, the proposed search engine project is determined.
In Sec. 5, required information on methodology
(fuzzy cognitive maps) is defined. And finally the
application is done in Sec. 6. The paper is completed
with a conclusion.
2. Non-governmental organizations
This section highlights the major insights that have
been captured regarding NGOs. Due to the NGOs
having an important role on development of governments, they are generally powered by society and
have a good place. Awareness of people is increasing
throughout worldwide. Several articles are indicated
that NGOs are beneficial to society and the environment in many ways.
Lewis [8] explained the term of NGO that operates in a variety of areas that do not earn financial
gain and are not part of the government sector. It is
also expressed that while NGOs, which mean “nonprofit” and “voluntary” based organizations working
on welfare issues in Western industrialized countries,
express institutions that are trying to help develop in
non-industrialized countries. Hudock [9] referred that
non-profit and NGOs are independent organizations
from private sectors and the government and work to
achieve a common objective with the contributions
of volunteers. Johnson and Prakash [10] expressed
that NGOs are different from governments and firms.
People living in a particular region are not expected
to legally comply with the laws and rules of NGOs.
The profit is not distributed to the right holders, hence
NGOs are non-profit. Martens [11] described NGOs
as whose main goal is to develop common objectives in national or international areas, are formal
and independent social organizations. Lewis and Wallace [12] and Vakil [2] pointed out that NGOs are
corporations in which individuals come together to
achieve common goals. Keck and Sikkink [13] disclosed that NGOs follow normative goals, different
from the companies that pursue instrumental targets.
Some researches [14–16] concluded that today,
most companies cooperate with NGOs within the
scope of corporate social responsibility to create
value. Delisle et al. [17] mentioned that NGOs can run
as a mediator in providing feedback to societies and
in planning, implementing and monitoring of fresh
I. Ucal Sari et al. / Analysis of a new business model to fundraise non-governmental organizations 6233
interferences, policies or other activities. Akkucuk
and Sekercioglu [18] stated that the importance of
voluntary organizations which are contributing environment is increasing all over the world and Turkey.
NGOs, which have a large volume in this area, are
able to reach broad masses by using traditional and
social media channels effectively.
Zukin et al. [19] expressed that civil participation is voluntary movement focused on helping the
people in need, providing a public good or solving
a social problem. Thus, encouraging civil participation plays an important role in achieving the NGOs’
objectives. According to Goksel and Gunes [20],
NGOs attach importance to principles and values
such as participatory democracy, rule of law, human
rights and responsibilities, ethics, transparency, and
accountability. Besides, NGOs in the development
of Turkey’s pace of globalization and integration has
great influence. According to Johnson and Prakash
[10], scientists and popular press highlight the role of
civil society organizations in maintaining democratic
governance. International organizations like the WB
and the UN state that civil society plays an important
role for good administration and economic growing.
Further, Delisle et al. [17] state that NGO actions
can be local, national or even international. NGOs
might contribute to the growing of societies all over
the World and are independent of governments, but
are important partners of many governments.
NGOs, which are now referred to as the third sector,
have a vital role for society and the state. The fact
that the state is insufficient to meet the needs of the
society and to solve its problems and that the NGOs
are concerned and able to solve the problems at all
levels has caused a rapid increase in the number of
NGOs and their fields of activity.
2.1. Activity fields
There are NGOs involved in different professional
activities and working areas such as humanitarian
aid, health, education, child welfare, nutrition, human
rights, sustainable development, and entrepreneurship etc. [21].
In a globalized world, education is necessary, especially in order to enable technological skills and
knowledge to be included in the economy and to reach
social mobility and economic stability. For this reason, there are many NGOs to ensure that everyone
benefits equally from education. According to Gokler and Bademci [22], social responsibility projects
are integrated into undergraduate programs, based on
the idea that students learn better if a practicable and
problem-based, society-oriented active learning process is engaged. Yang and Alpermann [23] indicated
that NGOs play an important role in the education
of disadvantaged groups and have a major impact
on the chances of life for young people. Additionally, Xiong and Li [24] uttered that NGO in China
aims to empower students in raising awareness and
activism related to citizenship. Moreover; according to Kallioniemi et al. [25], universities serve as a
bridge reflecting civil society needs in the curriculum.
Laszlo and Cescau [26] proposed that environmental protection is one of the main areas in which civil
society organizations operate. The importance of the
concept of sustainable value increases year by year.
It is advantageous for the companies to have reciprocal relations with the organizations which work
for benefit of environment. According to Gemmill
and Bamidele-Izu [27], NGOs in environmental management with diverse missions for environmental
protection, sustainable development, poverty reduction, animal welfare and other issues are diverse,
including local, national, regional and international
groups.
NGOs, which work to protect all natural assets such
as water, forest, biodiversity, and the creation of policies and social awareness on human-induced climate
change, and also draw attention to the environmental
problems that threaten the country and contribute to
the development of this struggle as a state policy.
The NGOs are working in the field of social meet,
the social and cultural needs of the society and are
active in activating and developing cultural and social
activities; besides, they operate in additional artistic
and sportive areas.
NGOs that help people provide the opportunity to
trust each other and the capacity to work together
towards common goals increase “social capital”.
Becerikli and Armatlı Koroglu [28] stated that the
development of social capital and human capital,
maintaining local resources and values, strengthening
social-cultural and physical structure can be determined as the activity areas of NGOs through projects.
Nathan et al. [29] emphasized that an activity that
will develop in terms of health, well-being, equity
and people’s development plays a key role for NGOs.
Piotrowicz and Cianciara [30] mentioned that the
fields of activity of NGOs are in the whole area of the
health system. The main tasks of NGOs in the health
system are service provision and health advocacy.
From another perspective, especially in
recent years, NGOs, generally seen as sign of
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democratization, have indicated rapid development
in Turkey [31]. The number of nongovernmental
organizations which stand the responsibilities of
the society voluntarily, is increasing every day. In
addition, the vast majority of these organizations
establish relations with similar-minded international
or foreign organizations.
Project management in the field of NGOs plays an
important role in the development of civil society in
many different areas such as health, education, governance, gender equality, agriculture and economic
development [32].
2.2. Fundraising of NGOs
NGOs have an emphasis on the unity, solidarity and
cooperation of society. Different segments of society come together to help, to get help, to exhibit an
example of unity and solidarity. People can become
a member of NGOs and participate in their activities and make material and moral contributions to the
works.
There are national and international institutions
and organizations that provide resources to improve
the activities of civil society organizations.
2.3. Types of Donations to NGOs
In this section, two ways of donation are considered. These are unplanned and planned donations.
In unplanned donation, there is no need to establish
a formal structure or open a separate organization. If
it is not preferable to place the donations on a plan,
the control of donations will be easy and flexible.
Individuals can support any subject or organization.
The amount of donations and focused areas in time
can be changed. Further, donations can be made at any
time during the year. The type of donation providing
direct financial resources to an NGO is so simple.
Despite these comforts, unplanned donations have
some disadvantages. It may not be possible to see
the impact of the contributions made with unplanned
donations. The contributions to different projects or
organizations are so fragmented that it becomes difficult to understand which one contributes to which
result.
Volunteering is one of the most common ways to
support an NGO. The donor is satisfied by involving directly in any activity at the NGO. NGOs may
need to train volunteers to participate in some of their
activities. Besides, NGOs sometimes need volunteers
with special skills and expertise. Volunteers can provide support to the organization with the knowledge
and experience in a wide range of areas, ranging
from the preparation of business plan to management, from information technologies to accounting,
to which an NGO normally has difficulty to meet and
where human resources are limited. In brief, NGOs
act as trigger that make connections easier between
donors and local actors [7].
Research conducted by Varon et al. [33] shows that
the majority of the NGOs try to survive with revenue less than 10.000 TL per year. Most organizations
don’t even have enough resources to be a professional
employee. The majority of the income of NGOs is
composed of membership fees. After that, the project
revenues are coming but these projects include support from one to three years. Volunteer support plays
an important role in the activities like planning,
resource management and development, information
technologies, human resource management, change
management and legal expertise. According to data
from 2014, only 13% of the population of Turkey is
the member of an organization and so, one association is for every 747 people. Further, it is noteworthy
that 1,5% of the associations and 0,5% of the new
foundations operate in the fields of human rights and
advocacy.
Donation from individual to individual is the oldest
and most common type of donation. It is difficult to
ensure whether this person is really in need where the
recipient is not known. In general, the solution is to
fund NGOs that support individuals and families in
need. For example, a donor who wishes to provide
support in the field of education may choose to rely
on an NGO working in this field instead of trying to
reach the individuals.
Crowdsourcing is a resource development tool for
NGOs to collect donations to their projects easily.
These platforms provide a connection for meeting
NGOs and the individuals who want to support social
issues. In this case, the supporters can both provide
financial support to the growth of the social movement they care about and contribute to the awareness
of the movement by including others in the support
activity.
Using web applications, the donors are actively
involved in the campaign they support and make
donation more interactive. While donors are donating their time or money, they are able to follow
up information and reports about the development
of the project they support. Thus, NGOs can easily
reach a large number of supporters in many different
I. Ucal Sari et al. / Analysis of a new business model to fundraise non-governmental organizations 6235
profiles, collect donations, find volunteers and
increase the visibility of their activities without any
cost of resource development.
On the other hand, there are many options and tools
for planned donation. Planned donation gives a formal structure to donations. In this way, donations are
carried out in a continuous manner, independent of
the activities. In addition, it is possible following the
effect of the donations and getting the results.
When a new NGO such as association, foundation
or cooperative is to be established, firstly, it is examined whether there are other actors working in the
field of study. If the needs in this area are already met,
resources and activities should not be used unnecessarily. Therefore, the best starting point would be to
conduct a feasibility study or any other research to
determine whether the services of the organization
are needed, whether these services are met by others,
and whether there is a potential for adequate resources
to survive.
As examined in [10], individuals can establish or
participate in environmental NGOs instead of acting
alone to protect the environment. Further; citizens can
establish NGOs and this is the basic story of the emergence of NGOs. It thus fills the lacks of the public and
private sectors.
Many foundations have been established to grant
grants to other NGOs. They serve as a legal tool for
transferring some of the assets of a person, family or
company to voluntary organizations. Investments are
made through the funds, and the grant is allocated
by the proceeds from the investment. The focus of
these foundations is to support certain types of organizations, a specific geographical region or objective.
Foundations also act as intermediaries. They collect donations from public or other donors and grant
grants to other NGOs.
Donors can also identify social entrepreneurs who
work in areas of interest and invest in their work. Even
though investing in a social entrepreneur is seen as
more risky than donating to a known NGO, it might be
said that the impact it creates is greater. Donors can
support social entrepreneurs either directly or indirectly by providing long-term support like providing
mentorship.
One more view is that the term of social
entrepreneurship is gaining popularity day by
day. Social entrepreneurship is the area where
entrepreneurship activities are carried out with the
aim of creating social value [34]. Social entrepreneurship aims at reaching wider social, cultural and
environmental goals, often focusing on areas related
to the voluntary sector, such as poverty reduction and
community development [35].
3. Search engines
To understand how the project works, first need to
learn how search engines work and how they generate revenue. Most of the internet search engines
work similarly. Search engines deliver proper results
through some special words called “keywords”.
When the user types the question or term in the
search bar, the search query begins. The search engine
enters the index to find the most relevant answer to
the users query. Certain “keywords”, how often users
search the browser, and many other factors, such as
these, affect the process of searching for appropriate
answers. In addition, for specific searches up-to-date
content might be considered more relevant. The likelihood of content being appropriate and reliable is
more likely than ever if recommended by many. The
user’s location and language need to be taken into
consideration for the efficiency of the search results.
If the factors specified in the search settings are specified, it will have a positive impact on the search
results. The search algorithm is defined as the piece of
code responsible for finding information about specific features such as language, relevance, and so on.
For all search engines, the search results are presented
probably in the same way. At the end of the search, the
most relevant results will appear at the top, while the
less relevant results will be listed below. Advertisements are shown alongside the search results in most
search engines. When a user clicks on any of these
advertisements, the search engine receives a payment,
because the user is redirected to the advertiser’s site.
The amount gained per click on an advertisement
differs depending on the competition and popularity
of the “keyword” and which advertisement is being
made. Clicking on one of the more profitable “keyword” advertisements may result in higher revenue at
a time than others give. Besides, revenue per search
is lower than expected, given that not every user has
to click on advertisements while searching.
4. Proposed business model to fundraise
NGOs
In recent years, with the widespread use of the
internet, the computer science and the information
technology have started to enter our lives and the way
6236 I. Ucal Sari et al. / Analysis of a new business model to fundraise non-governmental organizations
of doing businesses has been changing dramatically.
In this time, the channels of reaching and obtaining information have been also evolving. Formerly,
people used to go to the library or skim encyclopedias to find what they were looking for. In course
of time, thanks to search engines, the information
have become much more accessible without exerting
effort.
From another perspective, the interest in NGOs has
gradually decreased in recent years, and considering
this situation, the study aims to fulfill the gap experienced by NGOs and turn these into new opportunities.
To create this opportunity, a new business model that
serves to make a free donation, which is focused on
NGOs and its projects in Turkey, has been developed.
The proposed social business model is basically
provides a search engine service which fundraise
NGOs whose strive for the development of society
in any field [36]. It includes many NGOs that serve a
specific purpose and work in different fields such as
social, education, environment and health that solve
specific problems inherent to society. This fund will
be derived from the revenue generated by sponsored
clicks from future users.
In the process, the project gets search results from
search engine providers and develops the received
data with its own algorithms and displays them to
the user. The most important source of income in
the project is advertisement display, and in this field,
a revenue-sharing agreement is made with the collaborated search engine provider. The search engine
shows ads next to its search results and payment is
charged whenever a user is directed to an advertiser
through a sponsored link.
In detail, search engine providers place ads on
sites that they consider reliable and suitable for their
algorithms, for a fee per call from sites. From the
providers’ perspective, it is aimed to reach the number of sponsored link searches that providers should
deliver within a certain period of time. In this case,
where the mutual gain is provided, since any search
result targeted from the site will be covered by the
same search engine provider, it needs to share a certain part of the earnings to be obtained. This income
system is valid only for clicks on sponsored links.
The search engine project will provide accurate
and fast search results to people who want to find
what they are looking for on the internet in a timely
manner collaborating with a built-in search engine
providers such as Google and Bing. One lovelier feature is that users can choose the specific NGO that
they want to donate according to their number of
searches. In order to keep users sustainably, the financial reports showing the amount of donations made
to NGOs in order to show transparency of the social
enterprise will be shared, and motivation and effective marketing techniques designed for users will be
implemented.
In order to create a more livable society for the
present and future generations, this model is a social
enterprise dedicated to delivering excellent service,
giving superior value to people and providing fair and
equal returns. It is highly committed to creating and
delivering assistance in a variety of different areas.
The search engine project, which aims to fulfill
the shortage of funds of NGOs, is called as a social
business model. In other words, this search engine
project is a completely non-profit organization due to
its social business model, and it is also a fully profitable organization, since it aims to achieve higher
incomes in order to maximize support for NGOs. The
gap between donor and NGO is filled by extending
helping a hand to NGOs with this model. Eventually, it helps to achieve a society consciousness that
is extremely sensitive to public problems and to also
spread this awareness.
The main point that the project will be distinguished from the search engines already in the market
is that the awareness of helpness, and the social consciousness will be developed through that business
solution by adding value to any web search. Besides
enhancing social consciousness, the project also provides a new fund collection platform for NGOs to
reach the potential donors faster, and creates new
interactions between donors and NGOs.
Search results are served to users either at the website that includes search bar, or with installation of
as extension to browsers such as Google Chrome,
Safari, Firefox, Opera, Internet Explorer, and Edge,
or via applications on smart phones which conduct
the operation systems iOS or Android.
In addition to giving accurate result for searching,
this platform is designed to collect the points from
users’ each search and to donate these points they
accumulated to the NGO or NGOs which are also
the users’ choices. With these collected points, the
user will be able to support NGOs in any time, to use
for shopping environmental items available on the
project’s online shop, or to save the points for later
use.
The strategy is mainly based on delivering a strong
and agile customer value proposition in market. This
project is looking to offer the people who are eager to
do goodwill or want to receive accrued and fast search
I. Ucal Sari et al. / Analysis of a new business model to fundraise non-governmental organizations 6237
results a new choice for making donations with no
cost.
The marketing infrastructure is built so that the
search engine project can eventually reach more customers and users with the same service offering. In
this way, it focuses on meeting the needs of each internet users in Turkey, and each NGO in need of fund
or whose is open to collaboration.
Considered by some factors, the project seems
to have a good profile that is widely regarded as
respected business model. In the recent years, the use
of social media has increased steeply. Increased use
of mobile devices is also an uptrend having positive
implications. The increased awareness of NGOs and
social businesses will also lead to increase the use of
proposed search engine. Demographic changes and
changing user attitudes towards online services might
have positive impacts.
In brief, the proposed search engine project distinguishes itself from other search engines by providing
proper search results, and not only focusing on one
functionality such as giving result or advertising
something, but also including numerous NGOs that
are operating in many fields. The fact that the ability
to make donations at no charge makes the importance
and ease of use of this project even more evident.
5. Methodology
In this section first a detailed literature review on
FCM is given then FCM methodology is explained.
5.1. Literature review
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are used to define
long term effects of important factors for a system.
FCM is introduced to represent casual reasoning by
Kosko in 1986 [37]. Since then it is used in 5866
papers according to Scopus database. The distribution
of the papers according to years is shown in Fig. 1. As
it is seen from the figure, the usage of FCM method
is getting more popular since it shows the effects of
factors among others in a visual way and discovers
long term results of the casual relationships among
factors.
In literature review it is seen that FCM has a
widespread application area. Some of the papers used
FCM for risk management. Shojaei and Haeri [38]
proposed a comprehensive supply chain risk management approach for construction projects that uses,
grounded theory, fuzzy cognitive mapping, and grey
Fig. 1. Studies on fuzzy cognitive maps.
relational analysis. Rezaee et al. [39] identified and
prioritized potential failures of the production process
in the food industry by using an approach based on the
multi-stage FCM method and Process Failure Mode
and Effects Analysis technique. Chehbi-Gamoura
et al. [40] discussed a generic approach based on
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) for cross-management
of Disaster Recovery Plans.
There are also a lot of papers that used FCM on
e-commerce applications. Barroso et al. [41] showed
that entrepreneur profile, market, operational management, marketing and promotions, website and
digital platform, and products present the highest centrality indices as determinants of SME e-commerce
using fuzzy cognitive maps. Shukla et al. [42] used
fuzzy cognitive maps to explore and evaluate the
sustainability perspectives in e-commerce channels
for additive manufacturing. Mohammadian [43] used
fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to provide facilities
to capture and represent complex relationships in a
customer satisfaction management and modelling to
improve the understanding of managers and product
developers about their customers and associated risks
related to products and services that are offered online
using e-commerce sites.
Although the papers mentioned above focus on risk
management or e-commerce, FCM can be applied
any area in which factors have influences on each
other. Healthcare systems [44, 45], software development [46–48] and product design [49, 50] are
the other areas in which FCM applications are used
widely.
Also, it is found that some papers focus on the
extensions of the FCM methodology. Dursun et al.
[51] introduced an intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map
(IFCM) technique to assess the importance degrees
of success factors of leans six sigma project management. Krishna et al. [52] developed a differential
6238 I. Ucal Sari et al. / Analysis of a new business model to fundraise non-governmental organizations
Fig. 2. A hypothetical FCM.
evolution trained FCM for predicting the bank efficiency. Coban and Onar [53] developed hesitant
linguistic cognitive map method that is an extension
of hesitant fuzzy sets and fuzzy cognitive map and
applied for modelling renewable energy usage. Papageorgiou et al. [54] proposed a learning procedure for
training FCMs which utilizes unsupervised Hebbian
algorithm to nonlinear units.
5.2. Steps of fuzzy cognitive maps methodology
Step 1: Determination of casual relationships:
In FCM, the casual relationships between factors
are determined by experts using linguistic statements that include sign and size of the influence.
These causal relationships among the factors are
represented in a directed graph with feedback and
weighted in the interval [–1, 1] by fuzzy numbers. Nodes are representing factors and weighted
edges are representing relationships among the factors in Fig. 2 for a hypothetical FCM with six
factors (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6) and seven directed
weighted edges.
The linguistic variables that is used in this study
are defined as “very very high”, “very high”, “high”,
“medium”, “low”, very low”, and “very very low”
both for negative and positive directions. Triangular fuzzy membership functions for these linguistic
variables are shown in Fig. 3 [55].
Step 2: Obtaining adjacency matrix:
The weight of the relations among factors are used
to obtain adjacency matrix. The adjacency matrix for
hypothetical FCM shown in Fig. 2 is given in Table 1.
At this stage, an appropriate defuzzification
method is used to defuzzify linguistic variables. In
this study, the graded mean integration approach
is used. According to the graded mean integration
approach, a fuzzy number A˜ = (a1, a2, a3) can be
transformed into a crisp number by Equation (1) [56]:
P
A˜

= a1 + 4a2 + a3
6 (1)
Step 3: Determination of Activation Vector and Activation Function
Activation vector is also known as initial statement
vector represents current situation of the factors and
is denoted by A0 =
Ao
1, Ao
2, Ao
3,…,Ao
n

. The later
state value of factor Ci is calculated by a transformation function to transform the weighted activation
sum to the interval [–1,1] as shown in Equation (2).
Weighted activation sum is the sum of current state
value of factor Ci and total casual effects of other
factors on the factor Ci.
At+1
i = f
⎛
⎝ n
j=1
At
jwji + At
i
⎞
⎠ (2)
The most commonly used activation functions are
detailed below [57]:
Bivalent (step) function transforms the activation
level of each factor to 1 (activated) or 0 (inactivated)
and obtained a binary FCMs.
Fig. 3. Membership functions of linguistic variables.

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Tags: 2803NRS, ACC 502 GCU, ACCCN, ACCT 553 DeVry, ACCT20071