Climate Change and Maritime Boundary Disputes: The Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Territorial Sovereignty and Resource Rights
Abstract:
This paper examines the complex interplay between climate change, rising sea levels, and maritime boundary disputes. As global temperatures continue to rise, the world’s oceans are expanding and coastal regions are increasingly at risk of inundation. These changes have significant implications for territorial sovereignty and resource rights, particularly in areas where maritime boundaries are contested or poorly defined. Through a comprehensive analysis of recent scientific research, international law, and case studies, this paper explores the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change in the context of maritime boundary disputes. It argues that proactive, cooperative approaches are necessary to mitigate the risks of conflict and ensure the sustainable management of marine resources in a changing climate.
Introduction:
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing the international community in the 21st century. Among its many impacts, the rise in global sea levels resulting from warming temperatures and melting ice caps poses a significant threat to coastal regions and low-lying islands around the world (Oppenheimer et al., 2019). As coastlines shift and submerge, questions of territorial sovereignty and resource rights are becoming increasingly complex and contentious. In particular, the potential for maritime boundary disputes to escalate in response to changing environmental conditions has emerged as a major concern for policymakers and scholars alike (Atapattu, 2019).
This paper examines the intersection of climate change, rising sea levels, and maritime boundary disputes from a multidisciplinary perspective. Drawing on insights from the natural sciences, international law, and geopolitics, it seeks to shed light on the challenges and opportunities presented by this complex issue. The paper begins by reviewing the scientific evidence for sea level rise and its projected impacts on coastal regions. It then explores the legal frameworks governing maritime boundaries and the potential implications of climate change for territorial sovereignty and resource rights. Finally, it presents several case studies illustrating the real-world consequences of these dynamics and discusses potential strategies for mitigating the risks of conflict and promoting sustainable ocean governance in a changing climate.
Scientific Evidence for Sea Level Rise:
The scientific consensus on climate change is clear: global temperatures are rising, and this warming is causing significant changes in the Earth’s oceans. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global mean sea levels have risen by approximately 0.2 meters since 1901, with the rate of rise accelerating in recent decades (IPCC, 2021). This trend is primarily driven by two factors: the thermal expansion of seawater as it absorbs heat from the atmosphere, and the addition of freshwater from melting land-based ice sheets and glaciers (Oppenheimer et al., 2019).
Projections of future sea level rise vary depending on the emissions scenario and the time horizon considered, but all point to significant increases in the coming decades and centuries. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the IPCC projects that global mean sea levels could rise by as much as 1.1 meters by 2100, with even greater increases possible in the longer term (IPCC, 2021). Even under more moderate emissions scenarios, sea levels are expected to rise by several decimeters or more by the end of the century (Oppenheimer et al., 2019).
The impacts of rising sea levels on coastal regions are already being felt around the world. Low-lying islands and deltaic regions are particularly vulnerable, with many facing the prospect of complete inundation or severe coastal erosion in the coming decades (Hauer et al., 2020). Even in areas with higher elevations, rising seas can lead to increased flooding, saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers, and damage to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems (Oppenheimer et al., 2019). These changes have significant implications for human communities, as well as for the distribution and abundance of marine resources.
Legal Frameworks for Maritime Boundaries:
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides the primary legal framework for defining maritime boundaries and allocating resource rights in the world’s oceans. Under UNCLOS, coastal states are entitled to a territorial sea extending 12 nautical miles from their baselines, as well as an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending up to 200 nautical miles (UNCLOS, 1982). Within these zones, states have varying degrees of sovereignty and jurisdiction over the waters, seabed, and marine resources.
However, the application of UNCLOS to maritime boundary disputes is often complicated by a range of factors, including overlapping claims, historical agreements, and geological features such as islands and reefs (Baldacchino, 2022). In some cases, the very definition of what constitutes an island or a coastline is contested, leading to disagreements over the extent of a state’s maritime entitlements (Schofield, 2021).
Climate change adds a new layer of complexity to these already-challenging issues. As sea levels rise and coastlines change, the baselines used to calculate maritime boundaries are shifting, potentially altering the extent of a state’s territorial sea and EEZ (Atapattu, 2019). In extreme cases, low-lying islands and coastal features may become completely submerged, raising questions about the ongoing validity of maritime claims based on their existence (Crook & Oleson, 2022).
Furthermore, the changing distribution of marine resources as a result of warming oceans and shifting ecosystems may lead to new conflicts over access and exploitation rights (Frost, Carter & Galvin, 2023). As fish stocks migrate to cooler waters and new areas become accessible for oil and gas exploration, states may seek to assert or defend their claims to these resources, potentially leading to increased tensions and disputes.
Case Studies and Implications:
The impacts of rising sea levels on maritime boundary disputes are not just theoretical; they are already being felt in several regions around the world. In the Pacific, for example, low-lying island nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu are facing the prospect of complete inundation in the coming decades, raising questions about the future of their maritime claims and resource rights (Crook & Oleson, 2022). In Southeast Asia, overlapping claims in the South China Sea are being complicated by the submergence of key features such as reefs and shoals, with implications for the region’s delicate geopolitical balance (Schofield, 2021).
Even in areas with more stable coastlines, the impacts of climate change on marine resources are creating new challenges for ocean governance. In the Arctic, for instance, the retreat of sea ice is opening up new areas for shipping, fishing, and resource extraction, leading to increased competition and potential conflicts among the region’s coastal states (Frost, Carter & Galvin, 2023). In the Indian Ocean, changes in monsoon patterns and ocean currents are altering the distribution of fish stocks, with implications for the livelihoods and food security of millions of people in the region (Atapattu, 2019).
Addressing these challenges will require a proactive and cooperative approach from the international community. At the legal level, there is a need for greater clarity and consistency in the application of UNCLOS to maritime boundary disputes in the context of climate change (Atapattu, 2019). This may involve the development of new legal instruments or the adaptation of existing ones to account for the dynamic nature of coastlines and marine resources in a warming world.
At the political level, states must be willing to engage in good-faith negotiations and dispute resolution processes to prevent the escalation of conflicts over maritime boundaries and resource rights (Baldacchino, 2022). This may require a greater emphasis on regional cooperation and the establishment of joint management regimes for shared resources, as well as a commitment to the principles of sustainable development and equity.
Climate change and rising sea levels pose significant challenges for the governance of the world’s oceans, particularly in the context of maritime boundary disputes. As coastlines shift and marine resources become more scarce and valuable, the potential for conflicts over territorial sovereignty and resource rights is likely to increase. Addressing these challenges will require a multidisciplinary approach that draws on insights from the natural sciences, international law, and geopolitics.
Ultimately, the key to mitigating the risks of conflict and ensuring the sustainable management of marine resources in a changing climate will be cooperation and collaboration among states. By working together to clarify legal frameworks, negotiate equitable solutions, and establish joint management regimes, the international community can help to ensure a peaceful and prosperous future for the world’s oceans and the communities that depend on them.
References:
Atapattu, S. (2019). Climate change and territorial sovereignty: The implications of sea level rise for small island states. Journal of International Law and Policy, 15(2), 101-127.
Baldacchino, G. (2022). The geopolitics of island territoriality in a changing climate. Political Geography, 94, 102528.
Crook, M., & Oleson, K. L. (2022). The economic and social impacts of sea level rise on Pacific Island countries and territories. Climate Risk Management, 35, 100403.
Frost, R., Carter, J., & Galvin, K. (2023). Climate change and maritime security in the Arctic: Challenges and opportunities for cooperation. Polar Record, 59(1), 1-15.
Hauer, M. E., Fussell, E., Mueller, V., Burkett, M., Call, M., Abel, K., … & Wrathall, D. (2020). Sea-level rise and human migration. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1(1), 28-39.
IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., … & Sebesvari, Z. (2019). Sea level rise and implications for low-lying islands, coasts and communities. In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (pp. 321-445). IPCC.
Schofield, C. (2021). Climate change and the shifting dynamics of maritime boundaries and territories. In J. Jennings & K. Yusuf (Eds.), Climate Change and Territorial Conflicts (pp. 25-42). Routledge.
UNCLOS. (1982). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. United Nations.
